How Marc Andreessen Going to Cause the next housing crisis
His new $350 millions investment and Adam Neumann's Flow
Let’s say, my startup was valued at $47 billion. But it was basically a scam and a money losing business. Then the company crashed and got bankrupt within a year. I had other scandals as well. A drama series was created based on my story. After all that, a few years later I came up with a new brilliant scam to save the world — well at least a certain part of the world. Would you invest in my idea? Let’s say $350 millions to be precise!
The answer is yes for Marc Andereessen — the billionaire venture capitalist (former alumnus of the same alma mater as me — good old University of Illinois. He got his start at NCSA where Mosaic was created and it become Netscape. I also worked at NCSA for a few years).
So the company is called Flow. And the guy I was pretending to be is Adam Neumann.
This is the deal. He is buying a bunch of property and putting a brand on it and selling it to remote workers.
Yes, we heard this “ripe for discussion” business before. Uber was supposed to fix all the taxi and traffic problems. AirBnB supposed to fix the vacation rental problems, right? All of these are solutions that create problems. But investors love these types of disruptions:
And of course, you add crypto to the mix to make this more appealing. According to Forbes:
Forbes has learned that the company, Flow, intends to launch a digital wallet that can store crypto – among other currencies, including U.S. dollars – in addition to the real estate management software it announced previously.
Davidson Goldin, a spokesperson for Flow, said the planned digital wallet cannot be used to make rental payments for Flow-managed apartments using cryptocurrency it may store, but can be used for outside purchases like any other wallet.
So here’s my prediction:
Investors drool over Flow and it becomes another hype like WeWork and eventually crashes and maybe we can another drama series out of this.
In the meantime, the targeted cities where the rental units have been purchased will cause a local housing crisis. And this will have reverberated effect on other cities. Neumann is riding the “bezzle”:"the magic interval when a confidence trickster knows he has the money he has appropriated but the victim does not yet understand that he has lost it". This is from a VICE report, Aug 15, 2022:
Neumann has personally made millions as a landlord, chiefly by leasing properties he had an ownership stake in back to WeWork, The Wall Street Journal reported in 2019. In January, the outlet reported that Neumann had bought majority stakes in more than 4,000 apartments worth over $1 billion in Miami, Atlanta, Nashville, Fort Lauderdale, and other cities across the South.
It might be a success? Ah…maybe?
There will be some more scandals. Andreessen will get out of it with the profit and then he moves on to his next target.
Or, it will just crash sooner.
Or it will become another Uber type company that will keep the investors happy and create more problems for the mere mortals.
In conclusion, I do not see anything good coming out of this. But time will tell. I leave you with this:
Looks a lot like consolidation in an industry. Just think of consolidation in America in HVAC, the funeral industry, drug stores (whether corporate-owned or franchises, they all follow the same practices), book publishing (!) and more that I probably don't know about, but when the competition goes down, prices go up, and when there are investors and contractors and middlemen hiding behind the business you think you're dealing with, they have to get their cut and then prices have to go up. Maybe the business model can be copied such that there will be imitators of Flow - that might mean more competition, but only until the competition gets winnowed down again. Already there are investors buying up single-family homes across the country for purposes of renting them out, squeezing the housing market, and forcing people into high-priced rental homes. Only a proper, truly "progressive" or graduated income tax with few if any loopholes and cop-outs can keep the country from the increasing economic divide we see here - the Bell Curve or normal distribution vey clearly is becoming bi-modal in this country, and that is not, not, not good.