Why Does a Box of Frosted Flakes Cost $7.99??
Hello Readers,
Welcome back to the S.A.D newsletter.
This isn’t a U.S. election postmortem — well, maybe a thinly veiled one.
But seriously, why is a box of Frosted Flakes running up to $7.99 in the United States? I’m genuinely curious, and although I’m now in the Netherlands and I cannot verify this in person but this is what I found.
So, what’s going on with cereal prices?
A key moment is February 2024 when Kellogg’s CEO Gary Pilnick sparked controversy by suggesting that families on tight budgets could make dinner more affordable by simply eating cereal. With grocery bills growing 26% since 2020, Pilnick’s words quickly drew backlash. Many couldn’t help but compare his comment to “let them eat cake,” highlighting a disconnect between corporate giants and everyday struggles”
The multimillionaire chief executive officer of the US food processing giant Kellogg’s has drawn scorn from some quarters after recently suggesting that families with strained finances could cope by eating “cereal for dinner”.
Gary Pilnick was speaking live on CNBC’s Squawk on the Street on 21 February when he delivered the remarks in question, which some have compared to the “let them eat cake” phrase frequently attributed without evidence to Marie Antoinette before her execution during the French Revolution.
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Kellogg’s has been touting its “cereal for dinner” campaign since about 2022, when food prices increased by 9.9%, more than in any year since 1979, according to the US agriculture department’s economic research service.
Bureau of Labor Statistics data shows cereal prices have jumped 28% in the last four years, several media outlets have reported. And in information from its latest fiscal year, Kellogg’s raised its prices 12% as it pleads with its customers to eat cereal for dinner and “give chicken the night off”.
The key drivers of this price increase aren’t exactly unknown to us. The pandemic’s impact on global logistics was followed by the war in Ukraine, which severely disrupted supply chains. Companies like General Mills (a competitor to Kellogg’s) also raised their prices. Crop price volatility affected the cost of raw materials for these cereal manufacturers (it’s all about the wheat futures baby!). Meanwhile, the breakfast cereal market grew from $64.11 billion in 2023 to $67.89 billion in 2024, and demand for breakfast cereals remains strong.
Compare the price of breakfast cereals with the Big Mac Index which looks at the price of McDonald’s burgers worldwide, reveals price variances that make sense based on currency strength and cost of living. For example, a Big Mac in Switzerland costs around $8.07, while it’s only $5.69 in the U.S. This means a box of Frosted Flakes in the U.S. costs almost as much as a burger in Switzerland. Perhaps it is time to create another index?
Now, let’s see if we can correlate this with other data. How about Reddit? It might not be the best barometer of society, but the conversations there often reflect real experiences. Here’s an example from a thread 10 months ago:(why_cereals_are_so_expensive).
I took rising cereal prices as the final nail in the coffin of me considering it a decent breakfast option for my kids. Cereal isn’t exactly a health food. It’s a refined carb and sugar bomb.
I say this as someone who used to go through a box of Life in two days by myself (I miss having SNAP) and can’t do it anymore since I became diabetic. Now it just makes me feel like crap and I lost my desire to eat it
SNAP is a federal government support program in the U.S that also been cut down in the last few years. It highlights a) how limited people’s options may be for easy, cheap, quick, and healthy breakfasts—due to structural issues in the United States (one of these issues known as Food Desert), including an abundance of processed foods, low consumer awareness, and media influence and b) corporate greed, good old Capitalism!
Another comment:
Cereal companies are jacking up the price in part to deal with loss due to consumers opting for unprocessed or less-processed foods and people avoiding sugar in general. Cereal used to be considered "health food" now it's known to be almost as bad as candy or potato chips.
While you may have choices as a consumer, you’re ultimately at a disadvantage, paying a premium for the brand name.
I just saw the "magic spoon" bs at target for like $8.50 a bag! Who buys this stuff?!?!
Shop at Walmart, buy generic.
And this….
Kellogg’s set down a path to intentionally raise the base price across their portfolio right as stay at home and restaurant closures started. Those ghouls were positively giddy about leaving no pricing on the table during an unprecedented time.
Ratfucked literally everyone. We all gotta buy groceries. Small incremental increase to base pricing are locked in. The competition did the same.
It’s not that consumers are unaware of the health issues. Beyond pricing, health concerns have long surrounded the U.S. breakfast cereal industry. In October 2024, hundreds of people protested at Kellogg’s headquarters, demanding that artificial dyes be removed from cereals — ingredients banned in some European and Canadian products due to health concerns:
Hundreds of people gathered outside the WK Kellogg headquarters in Michigan on Tuesday calling for the company to hold up its promise to remove artificial dyes from its breakfast cereals sold in the U.S.
Nearly 10 years ago, Kellogg's, the maker of Froot Loops and Apple Jacks, committed to removing such additives from its products by 2018.
While Kellogg's has done so in other countries including Canada, which now makes Froot Loops with natural fruit juice concentrates, the cereals sold in the U.S. still contain both food dyes and a chemical preservative.
In the U.S., Froot Loops ingredients include Red Dye No. 40, Yellow Dye No. 5, Yellow Dye No. 6 and Blue Dye No. 1.
(Oh, and by the way, Kellogg’s has now split into two entities: Kellanova, and WK Kellogg Co )
Apparently, the FDA in the U.S. claims that artificial dyes, including Red Dye 3, are “generally safe.” But the FDA’s decision likely involves corporate lobbyist and other influencers.
The International Association of Color Manufacturers (IACM), an industry group, maintains that Red Dye No. 3 is safe at the levels that people typically consume and that human studies are more relevant than lab-rat studies (like the ones that led the FDA to ban it in cosmetics). The group has stated that the findings associating the dye with behavioral problems are “based on insufficient evidence.” In an email to CR, Meredith Huddle, IACM’s communications director, also said that a 1987 study found that even high doses of Red Dye No. 3 have “no effect” on humans because it’s “poorly absorbed.”
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More than 30 years ago the Food and Drug Administration told the cosmetics industry that it could no longer use an artificial color called FD&C Red No. 3, also known as Red Dye No. 3 and Red Dye 3. That’s because high doses of it had been found to cause cancer in animals.
Oh, 1987, that is good to know. And also good to know that Red Dye No. 3 is allowed in food but not in cosmetics.
As the recent petition to the FDA puts it: “There is no scientific or public health justification for permitting the use of FD&C Red No. 3 dye in food while prohibiting [the dye] in cosmetics and externally applied drugs.”
Instead, it’s largely the result of complicated internal processes at the FDA. The list of color additives the agency allows in food, supplements, and ingested drugs (like pills and liquid medicine) is separate from the list for cosmetics and applied drugs (like prescription lotions). That means the FDA has had to make decisions about the safety of each type of use at different times.
In the U.S., the companies were allowed to retain artificial dyes, citing “consumer preference”, while Canadian consumers get cereal coloured with natural fruit juice concentrates . How nice.
Of course, this isn’t just about breakfast. It reflects larger issues with corporate priorities and food accessibility. In an era when grocery prices are climbing, people are understandably frustrated when a company seems out of touch with the pressures consumers face. With cereal now marketed as an option for dinner, and even lunch, it’s worth questioning why healthier and more affordable options aren’t getting the same marketing push — or corporate attention.
At the end of the day, the rising cost of a box of cereal isn’t just about paying more at checkout; it reflects deeper issues. Could this help explain why Trump resonated with so many voters in 2016 and in 2024? Perhaps Ayatollah Khomeini, who led the 1979 revolution in Iran, put it best: “We did not rise up to get cheaper melons.” Maybe it wasn’t just Frosted Flakes or inflation that influenced recent elections, but something deeper. Are we now living in a democracy focused on cheaper breakfast cereals while we grapple with environmental crises and global conflicts?
